Iran’s decision to fly a surveillance drone toward a US aircraft carrier and later confront a US-flagged tanker was likely meant to test US naval reactions and signal its ability to threaten American forces, the Institute for the Study of War said.
In the first incident on Tuesday, an Iranian Shahed-129 surveillance drone approached the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group in the Arabian Sea before being intercepted and shot down by a US Navy F-35C fighter jet. Several hours later, Iranian fast attack craft, supported by a surveillance drone, attempted to stop a US-flagged tanker in the Persian Gulf, prompting a response from a US destroyer.
ISW said the incidents fit the pattern of what it described as a “probing action,” which “seeks to test the strength, disposition, and reactions of an opposing force,” while also serving a broader signaling purpose.
“It is unclear how close the Shahed-129 came to the Lincoln, though the way that the Lincoln group responded to the drone’s approach can give Iran useful intelligence on how the US Navy will engage Iranian drones operating in its vicinity,” the think tank said.
ISW added that the pairing of the drone incident with the attempted interception of a US-linked tanker suggested a deliberate effort to showcase Iran’s capacity to challenge US naval activity. “These two incidents may be the beginning of an Iranian maritime escalation that seeks to deter a US strike by demonstrating Iran’s capability to challenge US naval activity,” it said.
The Shahed-129 is an intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) and strike drone, distinct from the Shahed-136 one-way attack drones used by Russia in Ukraine. ISW said Iran has used the Shahed-129 extensively across the Middle East to collect intelligence and conduct attacks against US and Israeli targets.