Iranian lawmakers have said blocking the strategic Strait of Hormuz could be one retaliatory response to U.S. and Israeli attacks, and have given symbolic approval to the decision.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio urged China on Sunday to press Iran against closing the Strait following U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites.
Why It Matters
If the Iranian government blocks passage through the Strait, Asian markets are expected to be most hit, but American markets will be too, with energy prices likely to rise. Oil prices jumped on Monday to their highest since January following the U.S. strikes.
Located between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, connecting to the wider Indian Ocean, the chokepoint on one of the world’s busiest maritime routes is vital to global energy security and it handles roughly 20 percent of global oil trade.
What To Know
Since 2019, Iran has repeatedly used the Strait of Hormuz to apply pressure. In June 2019, it was accused of attacking two oil tankers with limpet mines. It also seized the British-flagged Stena Impero in retaliation for Britain detaining an Iranian tanker near Gibraltar. In 2023, units of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps briefly seized oil tankers in Gulf waters, prompting U.S. naval deployments.
That demonstrated Iran’s ability to target shipping. The strait is little over 20 miles wide at its narrowest point and while it could not be closed in the traditional sense, Iran could make it too dangerous for ships to pass — so that shipping companies and their insurers would stop
According to one lawmaker, Seyyed Ali Yazdi Khah, speaking before the U.S. strikes, Iran would be compelled to shut down the Strait to “protect its national interest,” in the face of “global arrogance” from the U.S. and the West, Mehr News Agency reported earlier this week.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said an average of 20 million barrels per day—around one fifth of global petroleum liquids consumption—moved through the waterway in 2024 and that volume has remained stable through the first quarter of 2025.
Iran’s Options
H.I. Sutton, an independent and open-source intelligence analyst, outlined several scenarios for disruption on his YouTube channel.
One feasible option is mining the strait. Bottom sea mines are placed on the seabed and designed to detonate when a ship passes nearby. Iran could also employ anti-ship ballistic missiles—a method used by its allied Yemeni Houthis since 2023 to disrupt Red Sea traffic.
The IRGC has drone carriers, fast attack boats, and Ghadir-class submarines—small, short-range vessels capable of launching torpedoes and laying mines.
Sutton noted that despite limited lethal power, Iran’s numerous platforms and long-range strike ability pose a serious deterrent.
Iran has been conducting large-scale naval drills in the region, including with Chinese and Russian naval vessels, signaling broader strategic coordination and an additional challenge for the U.S. and Western allies. But Iran would need to operate carefully in the Strait to avoid disrupting Chinese oil shipments, a lifeline for its economy and a cornerstone of its strategic partnership with Beijing.
What People Are Saying
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio to Fox Business Sunday Morning Futures: “Well, I would encourage the Chinese Government in Beijing to call them about that, because they heavily depend on the Straits of Hormuz for their oil. If they do that, it’ll be another terrible mistake. It’s economic suicide for them if they do it. And we retain options to deal with that. But other countries should be looking at that as well. It would hurt other countries’ economies a lot worse than ours. It would be, I think, a massive escalation that would merit a response not just by us but from others.”
Marko Papic, chief strategist at BCA Research, told Newsweek: “Oil prices would likely double, to well above $100. The extent to which that price shock would be sustainable is unclear.”
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) in a report last week: “Saudi Arabia and the UAE have some infrastructure in place that can bypass the Strait of Hormuz, which may somewhat mitigate any transit disruptions through the strait.”
What Happens Next
Iran has signaled that there will be a response to U.S. strikes, but has not said exactly what yet and whether that would include targeting shipping in the Strait or Hormuz.