– China ‘is likely to continue its policy of supplying defensive weapons, as it does not participate in conflicts,’ says Beijing-based analyst Einar Tangen
– Analysts say Beijing’s non-confrontational Middle East policy is driven by economics, not alliances, ruling out any chance of Chinese military intervention
ISTANBUL
A month after Israeli and American fighter jets bombed Iranian nuclear sites and US President Donald Trump declared “control of Iranian skies,” analysts say Tehran is likely scrambling to rebuild its defenses.
The 12-day war ended June 23, after US stealth bombers hit three Iranian nuclear sites, followed by Trump announcing a ceasefire. But for Iran, the war’s end brought little closure and instead sharpened fears over the country’s vulnerability to precision strikes – intensifying the push for more capable air defense systems.
The urgency has shone a spotlight on China, Iran’s partner under a 25-year strategic agreement, and whether Beijing might help shore up Iranian air defenses.
One report, circulated shortly after the ceasefire, claimed Iran had received Chinese surface-to-air missile batteries, but China’s diplomatic mission in Israel quickly denied it. “China never exports weapons to countries engaged in warfare and maintains strict controls on the export of dual-use items,” it said in a statement.
Chinese analysts who spoke to Anadolu say there is precedent for quiet cooperation, though overt support remains unlikely.
“Iran will strengthen its military, especially its air power,” said Hongda Fan, a professor at the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University, who formerly taught at Iran’s Isfahan University. “There is room for cooperation between Iran and China in this regard.”
He pointed to China’s progress in air combat and defense technology, and noted that Beijing and Tehran have long maintained close ties.
“If Tehran has enough willingness … Beijing will seriously consider trade with Iran in defense, especially fighter jets,” he said.
Beijing-based China expert Einar Tangen echoed the sentiment.
“China would likely be open to helping Iran enhance its defensive capacities, ensuring its ability to protect its sovereignty,” he said. “China is likely to continue its policy of supplying defensive weapons, as it does not participate in conflicts but supports countries in resisting external threats in a non-aggressive manner.”
He noted that Iran is a key partner in China’s multitrillion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative, as well as a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
However, he stressed that any such move by Beijing would avoid drawing China into offensive actions that could contradict its non-confrontational stance or provoke the West.
Economy-first approach
Chinese analysts consistently emphasized that Beijing’s foreign policy in the Middle East is driven by economics, not military ambitions.
“Chinese foreign policy in the Middle East is economics-driven,” said Yang Chen, an assistant professor at Shanghai University, adding that the approach stems from China’s own historical experiences.
“We suffered a lot over the past 200 years. We know the consequences of war,” said Yang. “Reconstruction and economic development – that’s the right path forward.”
Tehran’s current difficulties, he added, are “also due to a lack of development … maybe because of the sanctions.”
Iran remains one of the most heavily sanctioned countries in the world, alongside Russia and North Korea. Most of the measures are imposed unilaterally by the US and its allies.
China’s “main aim” is economic cooperation with Iran, Yang said, referring to the two countries’ 25-year strategic partnership. “We have a promise … We have an agreement on how to implement this agreement. China has willingness to put more investments in Iran.”
But when it comes to direct military engagement, Chinese experts draw a firm line.
“There is no way China will intervene militarily in the Middle East,” said Shou Huisheng, a professor at the Beijing Language and Culture University. “It is not in China’s interest.”
On whether Beijing might help Tehran rebuild its air defenses, Shou said that he does not believe China would do so “in a straightforward way.”
“If China helps Iran to rebuild its military capacity … that obviously puts China on the side with Iran, against the US … that is not the smart way,” he said.
Cautious regional posture
Cognizant of Israel’s dominance in defense technology, Beijing has maintained what it calls an “innovative comprehensive partnership” with Tel Aviv since 2017. Bilateral trade has climbed to around $23 billion in recent years, and Washington’s deep support for Israel is a factor China is careful not to challenge.
“China remains committed to maintaining a balanced approach to protect its multifaceted interests in the region,” Einar said, noting that Beijing has deepened its economic ties with both Iran and Israel. But, he added, “the war revealed the limitations of its leverage as a mediator without direct military involvement.”
Einar said Beijing is “keenly aware of Washington’s recklessness” and aims to avoid being pulled into confrontations that could undermine its long-term strategic and economic goals.
China’s primary concern during the conflict, he said, was to avoid disruption to energy supplies and the global economy. Iranian calls to close the Strait of Hormuz were reportedly met with resistance from Beijing, which relies heavily on crude oil imports from the Middle East, much of which transits through the narrow waterway.
The 12-day war, Einar added, has only reinforced Beijing’s longstanding Middle East policy: non-interference, de-escalation, and a focus on peaceful development.
Yang said Beijing sees external interference as the root of Middle East instability.
“For the last 100 years, the biggest problem are external forces, beginning with Britain, France, the US, the Soviet Union, and then, since the 1990s, the US,” he said. China, he added, does not believe in military alliances and does not “support external intervention in this region.”
According to Hongda, the Israeli-American military strikes on Iran have put the region on edge. “Countries are likely to think about whether they will be the next target of such a strike,” he said.
‘China has partners, not alliances’
The Iran-Israel war also cast fresh light on Tehran’s relationships with Russia, China, and North Korea – none of which appeared to offer material support during the conflict, despite longstanding partnerships.
That absence, analysts say, reflects the limits of what are often mistaken for strategic alliances.
“That is the Western ideological narrative,” said Shou. “China never has alliances. We only have partners. We do business with the US, as well as Russia.”
Einar described the relations between Iran, Russia, China, and North Korea as “transactional.”
“Their relationships are based on mutual convenience rather than a unified, long-term strategic military alliance with shared ideology or mutual defense commitments,” he said.
“Their collaboration is often driven by anti-Western grievances and a desire for a multipolar world order, but individual national and historical interests mean they are not a monolithic entity.”