As anti-regime protests spread quickly across Iran in late December, some in the West viewed it as an opportunity to use the 2015 nuclear deal as both carrot and stick to appease those fearful of Iranian expansionism in the Middle East and secure the future of the nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
The protests, sparked by a sharp increase in the price of food and the release of a draft budget designed to make the rich richer and the poor poorer, quickly became a demonstration about everything that is wrong with the Regime, and so the Regime blamed foreign powers and each other in order to distance themselves from blame. The protests were quelled after at least 50 people were shot dead by the Regime’s so-called security forces and over 8,000 were arrested and threatened with the death penalty.
So, how exactly should the West respond?
Bill Law, a journalist specialising in the Middle East, wrote that Trump was using the 2015 nuclear deal as both the carrot and the stick, by continuing to waive the sanctions while still threatening to withdraw.
Law wrote: “[This] gives all sides breathing space without compromising any positions.”
He states that Trump should continue this in order to keep everyone guessing about his next move long enough to allow Iranian President Hassan Rouhani to deliver economic improvements for the people of Iran, under the guise of US forces.
Apparently, if Iran were to focus on domestic issues, Saudi Arabia would be less concerned about Iran’s aggressive expansionism and thus their proxy wars across the Middle East would end, providing peace, and both nations would reduce their military spending and give more back to their people.
However, even Law admits that this is a “pipedream scenario” because there are too many variables in place but he writes that Trump is “hungry” for a big win, which this would be if he pulled it off.
What he fails to note is that the Iranian Regime is not divided into hardliners and moderates, and Rouhani is no moderate. He criticised other members of the Regime because he thought it would help him win an election or be better placed to make deals with the West, not because he has fundamental problems with the Regime.
Rouhani does not care about the Iranian people- he is adept at faking concern when he needs to appear moderate in the eyes of the West- and thus this plan to keep everyone else distracted to allow Rouhani to make economic improvements is doomed to fail.
The Iranian Regime is not capable of international change- otherwise there wouldn’t be a need for widespread protests- and any analysis that claims they are, is doing a disservice to the Iranian people and their calls for freedom.
Source » ncr-iran