Earlier this month, I went out to dinner in Baku with a good local friend – a businessman whose knowledge of the region is superb. It did not take long for our conversation to turn on Iran. He knows Iran well; he speaks Farsi and understands the Iranian state of mind. “Iran is a tragedy for which we are all going to pay,” he said.
I asked him to explain and he said that most Iranians detest their regime, whose only support is from the poor who get brainwashed – very much like the case of Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. They live in remote and small communities, whereas in Tehran there is a clear majority against the ayatollahs.
“This is a reign of terror: The people are terrorized by the regime, and the regime is scared of the people.”
The inner Iranian tragedy is only part of the picture. He considers the most troubling part to be the overall impact of the Iranian tragedy on the region – Israel included. “You have a problem,” he stated, “you think tactically, about tomorrow; the Iranians think strategically decades into the future. You have to start mimicking their thinking.”
He went on to explain how Azerbaijan is a predominantly Shiite country that is at the same time secular. THe Iranians tried to have their version of Shiite Islam take over just like they did in Lebanon and have been trying to do the same in Syria (while converting the Sunnis). They also wanted to set up madrasas and mosques in Azerbaijan. These meddling efforts were viewed with scorn by President Ilham Aliyev and he asked them to cease this activity. They listened – and went on to continue as they were. After he asked them again and they did not relent, he had had it with them – and made sure to take swift action to end this. “If he had not acted this way, they would have gradually crept in and would have ultimately threatened his regime. He understood that they must be nipped in the bud.’
Strategic alliance
Azerbaijan and Iran are almost joined at the hip: Iran has some 30 million Azeris (they are the largest minority there and exceed the actual number that live in Azerbaijan). Practically all Azeris ave relatives on both sides of the border; the food is also very similar, as is the language: Azerbaijani sounds like a fusion of Farsi and Turkish. But there is no love lost between the two countries.
Iran, as noted above, sees its northern neighbor through the prism of its imperialistic ambitions, eliciting a backlash from Baku. Iran has been concerned over Azerbaijan’s close ties with Israel, especially on military and intelligence matters. In the past, it has issued a clear demand to Baku to sever those ties,only to be met with a categorical rejection. In fact, the opposite reaction soon emerged: The ties between Israel and Azerbaijan are only growing closer. The recent opening of the Azerbaijani Embassy in Israel attests to that.
A major breakthrough in relations with Israel (and the subsequent distancing from Iran) was the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020. Israel was by Baku’s side, winning great respect in the country. Iran supported Armenia and lost three times: first, because it supported Azerbaijan’s enemies; second, because it lied about it; and third, because it was on the losing side. As a result, and also because of the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic that year and its impact on Iran, Azerbaijan closed the border shut. Currently, only visa-holders are allowed to cross north, and under strict conditions.
For Israel, Azerbaijan is a strategic partner. First and foremost, this is because of its oil. Azerbaijan supplies some 70% of Israel’s oil consumption. The second is security: The defensive needs of Azerbaijan due to the threats posed by Iran and Armenia and the rising challenges from Russia and Turkey have had it invest much of its petrol dollars in sophisticated weapon systems and naturally turned to Israel to see this through. Israel has sold Baku over the past decades a whole host of offensive and defensive weapons systems, as well as technological know-how that give it the qualitative edge. The third reason is the mutual desire to translate warm relations into other avenues of collaboration. During his visit to Baku several weeks ago, President Isaac Herzog spoke about joint ventures in agriculture, aerospace, tourism, energy, and other fields. Israel, of course, has another vested interest in cultivating relations with Azerbaijan: Iran. Iran has tried time and again to target Israelis on Azerbaijani soil, but these plots were frustrated. Foreign media reported that Israel also uses Baku as a staging ground to launch operations in Iran. Moreover, these foreign reports claim that if Israel were to launch an attack on Iran’s nuclear sites, it would do so from Azerbaijan or pass through it.
Herzog dealt with the Iranian issue because of the media. The issue came up during his visit with his counterpart and the senior Azerbaijani officials, but only as an afterthought. Israel’s president does not devise a strategy on Iran and definitely does not oversee the operational aspects. Israel’s security agencies know how to interact with the locals; as for strategy – Israel first has to decide what it wants before it exports it to the world.
This is a cardinal matter that also came up during my conversation over dinner. The Iranians are galloping forward in their nuclear program, in their missile development, in exporting the revolution and terrorism. Israel has been sleeping , too busy with the domestic strife over judicial reform and a whole host of other distractions that come up on a weekly basis in the Knesset and the cabinet. This is indeed a tragedy: If Israel doesn’t get it act together quickly and set its priorities straight and match them with a clear working plan – it could one day wake up to find it is already too late. One could not be unimpressed after watching Herzog in action. He is in his element on the world stage, and this is all the more impressive since he had not previously met the Iranian counterpart and had never visited Azerbaijan. The ease at which he made the Azerbaijani president into his friend was jaw-dropping.
Herzog on all fronts
Herzog today is one of Israel’s most valuable assets, which is clearly noticeable in the way the relations with Turkey are properly maintained, as well as with other regional players. This is doubly important with regard to the ties with Washington, on all aspects – from the Biden administration to the pro-Israel lobby. With the White House showing a cold shoulder toward the Israeli government, the president has become a senior channel to preserve and maintain vital ties.
Herzog has been invited to visit Washington in honor of Israel’s 75th anniversary but has so far not gone, ostensibly because of scheduling reasons. That may be only partially true: It is likely that the president doesn’t appear spiteful towards Prime Minister Benjamin NEtanyahu, who has yet to receive an invite. After all, Herzog has until April 2024 to celebrate the special occasion.
Herzog has in recent weeks avoided long trips, and the visit to Baku ended after a day so that he could return to Israel and continue mediating the judicial reform negotiations. He has projected guarded optimism and tells his surroundings that what has been reported is ridden with spins and interests. Inside, he claims, the talks are substantive and serious. Both sides are fully aware of what failure would mean. .
Let’s hope the president is right. If a deal ultimately emerges, Israel would be able to focus on the big things: the economy, domestic security, foreign relations – and Iran. From Baku, a stone’s throw from Tehran, it was clear how serious and resolved the IRanians are. Too bad we can’t say the same about Israel.
Source » israelhayom