The Iranian regime’s struggle to hang on to power

The U.S. sanctions on Iran have been in place for a week. Before this first round even came into effect, the national currency of Iran – the rial, has been in a nosedive. The discontent of the people has been getting louder and the Iranian regime is speaking out more about the threat of the uprising and the role of the opposition.

Because of the U.S. sanctions, Iran has brought military exercises forward and it has carried out the test-firing of a short-range ballistic missile. It has been around a year since the last launch.

The Iranian regime is giving all the signals that it is turning down U.S. President Trump’s recent offer of sitting down for negotiations.

Yet, at the same time, the Iranian regime’s Guardian Council that is under the direct orders of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and no one else, has signed agreements that bring Iran into international standards regarding the combat against money laundering. This is only because the regime is in dire need of foreign investments and Europe is forcing Iran’s hand. To keep playing the EU off against the United States, Iran has to concede somewhere along the way.

Some analysts say that the Iranian regime is sitting tight and trying to let the time pass until another U.S. administration is in place. This would be a good move for the regime’s survival if it was not already so close to collapse. It is very doubtful that it can hang on as it is for much longer.

When Trump first took office, Iran tested the waters by launching a ballistic missile. It then went quiet on that front until now. The move can only be seen as a clear defiance of Trump’s policies and a reaction to the first round of sanctions that have just been reimposed. The sanctions are cutting of Iran’s access to the automobile industry and the precious metal sectors.

In November, the second round of sanctions will hit Iran. These sanctions will affect the banking and energy industries. The rial is almost without value, so it is more than unlikely that the Iranian regime can turn this around in just under three months.

Iran has said that if it cannot send its oil through the Strait of Hormuz then no country will be able to. However, if Iran dares try to block the strategic waterway, it is certain that other counties will initiate an immediate military response. The U.S. has already said that it would “literally take out all their [Iran’s] military on the Strait of Hormuz” if it came to it.

As usual, Iran is resorting to bold rhetoric. It is to save face and to make it appear less vulnerable than it really is. When it is backed into a corner, like it is now, the threats come loud and fast, but it is unable to follow through with actions.

Will the regime survive until the November sanctions? If it does, it is likely to be hanging by a thread and no more.

Source » ncr-iran

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