It doesn’t take a genius to understand the basics of economics, and clearly Germany is a leading figure in this field, or at least has been until recently ever since the US pulled them out of the post war disaster. Germany is a proverb for high quality and reliability. No wonder that leading Middle Eastern Countries invited Germany to invest and build, and wherever she saw profit, Germany invested heavily, long term, in infrastructure and heavy-duty industry.
The German Major league of conglomerates is well represented in Iran and it stands to reason, that they are the ones to call the shots. No wonder that the Wirtschaftswunder, led by companies like Siemens, Krupp and BASF, will want to keep its investment alive. Tens of billions of Deutsche Mark and now Euros were invested, and the revenue has not yet evened out. The pressure on the government is relentless, demanding and above all unyielding.
The ties between the countries are deeply rooted, almost legendary. Iranian banking in Germany is well based, mainly in Hamburg and Frankfurt. Euler Hermes supported and still supports credits for business with Iran. Even official commercial relations through the AHK in Tehran are unproportionally extensive, were the German government funds a team of about 30 employees to promote business and academia between the countries. The academic part is of high importance to Iran, as it supplies up-to-date know-how in various technological fields, partially relevant to WMD and missile projects. Germany needs to ensure the resources and German companies want to insure ROI. But how far are they willing to go?
As it is, natural gas will be the only relevant resource left in Iran. Liquidity is down and falling. The Iranian way of terror makes anyone connected to take a step back, anyone with a choice to switch sides. Over the recent two decades Germany has turned into “Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde”, on the one hand showing concern and even taking cosmetic actions to “sanction” Iran, on the other hand doing almost anything to feed the Islamic fundamentalist monster. The international cost is high and getting higher. Germany is dragging the EU into this lost game, although under false pretense. They may not be able to blind the UK but France and Italy have no choice but to follow suit, although they might have done it anyway.
In the mean time the world is changing. Iran is less important, the western world connects to Saudi Arabia and the Emirates more than to Iran, and the three P’s rule: Peace, Prosperity and Prevalence. Very much like in the German Blitzkrieg, the west circumvents Iran and very soon will circumvent Germany, still stuck with old promises and old money. Germany has stopped to be relevant in the Middle East, its chances to come out on top have ceased to exist. The vessel is hard to steer but it’s not too late. The German financial “aircraft carrier” has to change its course, slowly, but as fast as it can. In order to allow take off you have to turn into the wind, it may become stormy, but there is no other way to connect to the new trend, no better way to show scruples.