In general, we should believe in coincidence at least as much as in conspiracy. In this case, Hanlon’s razor stands to reason, but there is more than reasonable doubt when we look deeper into it.

To start with, the outbreak of the Marburg Virus in parallel in two distant parts of Africa over the last few weeks remains unexplained. Had this been a kind of a flue or even COVID, nobody except WHO would bother. But the Marburg virus is deadly Ebola-style Killer which has no vaccine and strives on low hygiene surroundings.

Our interest started when UAE issued a travelling warning for Equatorial New Guinea and Tanzania, while the WHO is still investigating. This will usually happen when local citizens are endangered. But are they? And by what?

There are several countries in the Gulf region that suffer an unusual death rate even after COVID-19 has been overcome, while in most Gulf countries, except Iran, COVID left only little damage. That has changed the level of apprehension in these countries, including UAE. Any health threat in the region and in relevant countries is evaluated and addressed.

As the numbers of poisoning cases within Iran and in several surrounding countries are rising, so is the tension and suspicion, mainly when it comes to transit countries of Iranians, moreover after there has been no chemical evidence to the poisonings. To many the possibility of biological terror is not an unfamiliar thought, not in view of the long war of Iran and Iraq.

Still, this doesn’t make sense, at least not at a glance. But then, when you look at the Iranian interest in Tanzania, you will find a Baluch minority that was targeted by Iran’s MOIS, the Ministry of Intelligence, to built spy network. One main actor was deported in late December 2022, but Iran has not lost interest.

Equatorial New Guinea is quite another thing. Here the Iranian interest is clear and visible, with extending activity and presence of Hezbollah and promises made by president Raisi, all aiming at the local resources – oil, a lot of oil.

Whether UAE monitors this activity going through their airports and understands where this might lead, whether Iran has seen the impact of COVID-19 on world economy and wants to bring a weaker Europe to the negotiating table in order to gain threshold status or whether a local biological warfare trial in Baluchistan went wrong accidently – even if it is stupidity, it bears quite a lot of malice.

Should we believe in a conspiracy? Not necessarily! Is it plausible? Very much so! For now, there is no other explanation and UAE know what they are doing: protecting themselves from their Northern neighbors. Many Gulf countries have changed their level of alert to high, some to top level, keeping the reason to themselves, not to anger the Iranians.