Despite suffering from multiple internal crises such as the widespread protests and the wrecked economy caused by the international sanctions, the religious Shia dictatorship in Iran has not sought to stop the antagonistic interference and nefarious and destabilising activities in the region.
Similarly, the religious regime in Iran has been keen for decades to destabilise the Gulf Arab states, in particular Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain. The Iranian regime does not use direct missile attacks to inflict damage to the regional countries which it considers enemies such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE because these sorts of attacks could cause substantial damage to the oil production and oil shipments in these countries. Besides these countries have superior air forces and would retaliate if the Iranian regime dares to launch such offensives against their oil production facilities, especially the Iranian oil production which is currently hampered by the international sanctions could be intensively damaged if these Gulf counties choose to retaliate.
In the pursuit of its nefarious activities in the region, the Iranian regime has posed variant threats to regional countries using its propaganda machine and terror activities manned by its Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). The major role of the IRGC is to support and train dissident groups and sectarian Shia militias to cause harm to the interests of regional countries that do not agree with the Iranian policy in the region.
In neighbouring Afghanistan which has been witnessing growing violence since the Taliban established the new Islamic Emirate after the U.S. withdrawal last August, the Iranian regime has increased its support for the minority Shia Afghanis against the new Islamic government. Tehran has increased its threatening language against the new Afghani government warning that if attacks against the Shia minority in Afghanistan are not stopped, it would support the armed Afghani Shia dissident groups although it has been covertly doing that.
Iran has already recruited thousands of Shia Afghanis as mercenaries to defend the dictatorship of the Shia Allwate Bashar Assad in Syria. The regime in Iran has a long history of supporting variant factions in Afghanistan. One of the warring factions which Tehran gave support to during the 1990s was the Northern Alliance. The Iranian regime is currently threatening the new Afghani Islamic government that it will support the National Resistance Front in Afghanistan. The Iranian has escalated its indirect military activities in this war-torn country by supporting the armed groups there taking advantage of the outbreak of violence triggered by the withdrawal of the American forces from Afghanistan last year and the infighting irrupted between armed Shia forces and other militant groups after the Taliban took power.
In Yemen, the Iran-allied Shia Houthis have repeatedly used Iranian-made cruise, ballistic missiles and armed UAVs to attack Saudi Arabia and UAE. The Houthis also have used Iranian-made weapons inside Yemen to attack the internationally recognised government and security forces, as well as target Yeminis who they consider as enemies.
The Houthis usually assemble the Iranian weapons inside Yemen and use them to launch attacks against their adversaries from the areas they control in northwest Yemen. Despite the United States having recently deployed the Combined Task Force to patrol the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea and to intercept Iranian smuggled weapons to Houthis including ballistic and cruise missiles, some of these smuggled shipments can still go through as this is reflected in the last Houthis’ attacks on Saudi Arabia and UAE.
Despite the current cease-fire agreement that resulted in the decrease of the Houthis’ ground and air attacks on Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the Houthis have repeatedly violated this agreement. They have continuously launched attacks on the Yemeni government forces who held the central city of Marib.
Israel, Syria and Gaza
Iran, however, is unlikely contemplating to attack Israel using its long-range missile simply because the clerical regime does not have many of these sorts of missiles. If it does attack Israel, however, the latter would easily avoid major damage and causalities because of its advanced weaponry. Therefore, it would be economic suicide if the religious regime in Iran decides to attack Israel directly.
In Syria, the Iranian regime is backing Bashar Asad’s regime as part of its ambitions to expand its regional influence and establish a military presence on the Israeli borders. The Iranian regime is pressing its ally the Syrian dictator not to make a peace deal with Syria’s Kurds who are looking for autonomy similar to Kurdistan Regional Government in northern Iraq. Iran and Turkey oppose granting such autonomy to Syria’s Kurds because they both have problems with their own Kurds.
Nonetheless, the Iranians have been inflicted huge losses at the hands of the Israelis in Syria. Israel has repeatedly used air strikes to target Iranian personnel. On May 13, five Iranian-backed members of Shia militias, in addition to one civilian, are believed to have been killed by an Israeli air strike, and seven more were injured. On April 27, another air strike against Iranian targets In southern Syria by the Israelis left nine dead and eight wounded, all the casualties belonged to Iran-backed militias or the Syrian army. These men are used to guard Iranian facilities in Syria. This was the tenth Israeli airstrike in Syria in 2022.
Most of the Israeli air strikes in Syria usually target the Iranian-allied Hezbollah’s places and Iranian weapons such as surface-to-air and anti-ship missiles headed for Hezbollah in Lebanon. The Iranian regime is also supporting the Syrian regime to expand its underground chemical weapons since 2017 such as the Syrian research centre at Masyaf. The Iranians’ efforts in this respect have been greatly affected after the Israeli recent attacks that destroyed all the entrances to the underground chemical facilities. Some of the abandoned bases were transferred to Iranian control and used by Iran-backed militias, including Lebanese Hezbollah.
In Gaza, the Iranian regime Iran back the Islamist Hamas group which controls Gaza. The Islamist group is currently more dependent on Iranian support after Turkey has expelled dozens of its members in the last few months after it made agreements with some Arab countries to end the diplomatic standoff.
In Iraq, Iran-allied Shia militias have increased their attacks against the American interests. On April 24, one of these militia groups attacked a convoy of American supply convoy with a roadside bomb. There were no casualties. Although most of these frequent attacks did not cause real damage, they reflect the capability of Iran-backed armed groups in causing harm to foreign forces in Iraq if Iran gives orders to them to do so.
The June 12 decision by Iraqi Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr to renounce his electoral victory and collapse the government formation process is seen as a gift to Iran. It is also a blow to average Iraqis, in particular the young who demonstrated in 2019 for the end of the sectarian political system dominated by the Iran-allied factions. More than 800 protesters are believed to have been killed by the Iranian-backed militias. The withdrawal of Sadr and the rise of the Iranian-backed factions means an unprecedented rise of the malign Iranian influence in this country since the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq.
Source » trackpersia