The IRGC is taking no hostages, pushing hard to get their man to the top, eliminating any adversary any way possible, anything to avoid Khamenei to nominate his successor. Still, anybody’s game!
For several years now, the supreme leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei, is looking for a suitable successor. Ever since he reached 80 years and his health declined, he started looking for the right man. This did not go unnoticed, not only by world media, but mainly by the IRGC. This former elite unit, originally put together to make sure that the Islamic Shiia revolution will prevail, has turned into an all-devouring monster (see – “The Kraken”), who started by building up a parallel economy, a parallel army, a parallel missile industry and ended up taking the Iranian regime hostage. The only thing that still stands in their way is the supreme leader. They will do almost anything to take over this office and as time is running out, we are witnessing an increasing level of violence invested, mainly by the IRGC.
When Raisi was elected president, many wondered how this came about. Raisi was not a politician, but a judge, a zealous representative of the old ways of conservative Shiia. Khamenei made sure that Raisi will get the post of the minister of justice and later cleared his way to be Iran’s president. Everybody knew that this was a test, and should he pass it, he’d be nominated by Khamenei to be his successor. The option of Khamenei’s son had been mentioned, but actually this was only the back-up plan, in case Raisi wouldn’t make it, alive.
Raisi’s mission was to trim the wings of the IRGC, to push them back into proportion and to make sure that Salami and his men would depend on the regime’s international policy more than the regime depended on the IRGC capabilities to provide the needed income with their sanction circumvention apparatus. Not an easy undertaking, but with the diplomatic capabilities of Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, especially with his progress with Russia and China, and even with several Arab countries, Raisi was on his way to produce a counterweight to the IRGC machinery with their connections and supply routes on a global level. The improving relations with the world powers change everything, but just for a while.
Whether this was a convenient circumstance or a deliberate elimination, the chopper crash in the mountains of Azerbaijan came in very handy for the IRGC. It was easy to blame the weather, and even when some people asked why the other helicopters didn’t try to pass the mountains in this weather, no-one had real access to the crash site many hours after the so-called accident. The reactions made it all clear: Russia, who got enormous supplies of drones, missiles and ammunition, took a step back and announced they’d be willing to renew the relations once everything has cleared up. China once again stopped the major investments in Iran and Khamenei started to speak openly about the need to open to the West. But does he want that for the right reasons? From his personal point of view there couldn’t be any better reasons for that!
Time is running out for Khamenei and the only solution for him is lifting the sanctions. Once these are lifted, the IRGC clench on Iran’s economy will be released. Commerce will be legitimate, oil exports unhindered and will seize to rely on the IRGC. Moreover, a renewed agreement with the West could include restraints on the IRGC, mainly on their international activity, which would play into the hands of Khamenei. Should Iran include the missile technology in this agreement, there could be a real shift in the balance of power between the IRGC and the supreme leader. The promoted election of the new president Masoud Pezeshkian is a big step into that direction. Not only did he state his intention on that matter in his inauguration speech, he was supported in this by Khamenei in the same ceremony. The answer of the IRGC didn’t take long.
While there is no clarity to who the client was, whether a foreign player or the IRGC itself, one thing remains crystal clear: The elimination of Ismail Haniyeh on that specific occasion within an IRGC compound is not possible without IRGC at least turning a blind eye, not to say planning and literally executing the assassination, immediately blaming Israel. The IRGC published a scenario, very much in favor of the needed narrative, claiming that a precision missile, launched from outside of Iran, hit Haniyeh’s room. Later on, they provided an alternative, an ATGM launched within the city of Tehran, and only much later, the local police talked about a bomb planted in Haniyeh’s room, a scenario that points directly at someone within the IRGC. Soon after, dozens of IRGC members were arrested, many remained in the investigation rooms of the MOIS.
Whatever Khamenei had in mind, whatever the outcome of the investigation was, one thing is inevitable. Iran must react to an outside threat. If not, the new president will have to confess that he, and in that, the supreme leader, are not in control. On the other hand, such a reaction will obviously reflect on the promised openness towards the West. That is why Pezeshkian says there will definitely be a retaliation of the killing of Haniyeh, whereas the IRGC is threatening a heavy blow, publishing clips of new and deadly weapons, trying to incite the whole region. They are recruiting all proxies for a multi-lateral attack, putting the blame and the punishment also on the US. Anything to avoid Iran opening towards the West, anything to avoid lifting the sanctions, anything to keep on the stranglehold of the IRGC economic and military apparatus on the ever-weakening regime.
Will Pezeshkian survive this scheme? It is yet too early to say. The next few days will show whether he can take on the IRGC or not. He will have to find a way to retaliate on an international level, without causing further escalation in the area. He will have to do it without the help of the IRGC and that includes Quds Forces and he will have to be more successful than the April attack, to be able to show a win. If he doesn’t succeed in that, a complete takeover by the IRGC is imminent, the future of the next spiritual leader included. This seems to be an open secret, which leads the West to make sure that both sides understand the trade-off. Understanding it is one thing, playing by it is something completely different. We will just have to wait and see, whether everyone understands their part, or not.
