The US-Iranian deal on Tehran’s nuclear programme has been postponed for now.
In fact, the chances of reaching such an agreement have become almost nil in view of rigid Iranian positions, which make any understanding that does not submit to the “Islamic Republic’s” conditions impossible.
Just a few weeks ago a deal seemed likely. That is not the case anymore.
Three European countries, Britain, Germany and France, attempted recently to offer Iran an alternative “mini-deal” that would fill the gap until after the US midterm elections next November … and after Israel’s forthcoming ballot.
Israeli elections are only about six weeks away. Any US-European deal concluded with Iran in this period will harm the chances of the Yair Lapid-Benny Gantz alliance, that is, that of the existing Israeli government formula. Benjamin Netanyahu, who is despised by the Biden administration and the US president himself, would be the only winner.
However, the statement issued recently by Britain, Germany and France suggested that the mini-deal offered to Iran, with the blessing of the United States, has been rejected by Tehran, which prefers to wait for the real deal to be reached in due time.
It is difficult to understand all this Iranian intransigence. Nor is it easy to fathom why the Joe Biden administration would be interested in a grand bargain with the “Islamic Republic” after the post-congressional midterm elections, regardless of their outcome.
From Washington’s perspective, there is nonetheless a rationale for postponing the deal till after the Congressional ballot. The US administration knows that reaching such a deal in the weeks ahead of the elections will hurt the Democrats’ chances of maintaining a majority in the House of Representatives and the semblance of a majority in the Senate.
To put it more clearly, it seems that the Biden administration does not want to end up being a lame duck.
But what makes Iran stick to its steadfast posture despite its dire economic situation?
The “Supreme Guide” Ali Khamenei cannot give the green light to any deal with the “Great Satan” if it does not mean the lifting of sanctions on the “Revolutionary Guards”. The Iranian regime itself has become a prisoner of the “Revolutionary Guard Corps”, which controls the levers of power and the economy.
From the same perspective, Iran cannot make any concessions anywhere, especially not in any country it occupies. This explains its hostile behaviour in Iraq, where it refuses to accept the fact that most of the Iraqi people, including the Shia, oppose its colonialist and racist practices.
What applies to Iraq is valid in Syria, where Iran refuses to recognise the fact that there is no future for its continued support for a minority regime rejected by its people, and that it will not be allowed in the long run to use Syrian territory to blackmail Israel, nor any other country for that matter; not Jordan and not the Arab Gulf states.
The same applies to Lebanon, which has become a poor country without institutions, ruled by Hezbollah. Yemen remains the only Iranian trump card, although some forces on the ground, such as the Giants Brigades, have succeeded in curtailing the expansion of the Houthis since the beginning of this year.
Once again, it seems that the Revolutionary Guards are not ready to reconcile themselves with regional realities and those of the civilised world in any way possible. The Guards cannot accept to see Iran evolve into a country that worries more about its hard-pressed people than anything else.
This may be the reason why Iran has chosen the North Korean option; the possession of nuclear weapons and blackmailing the rest of world and the region with the aim of reaching a deal with the “Great Satan” on the terms of the “Islamic Republic.”
Source » thearabweekly