A complex set of insights to provide a clearer picture
The longer you look at it, the clearer it gets: Iran not only plays a major role in the so-called “axis of evil”, with regional as well as para-regional involvement, in Ukraine, South America and Africa. This fits very well into the scenario of the “lukewarm” war era, an economical war by proxy, where China fights against the free world and Russia wants to make sure she’s not left out. In such a plot, Iran has an important role as a facilitator, supplier and local influencer. Not as a leader.
While Iran plays that role willingly, she never forgets the tradition of the Persian empire. Iran sees herself as the leader of Islam as well as the rightful heir of the greatest Empire of the region. In fact, the only empire that might jeopardize her status is the Othman empire, meaning Turkey of today. The current situation might allow her to take the next step towards her ultimate goal. Or so she thinks.
As usual, the weak points in this scenario are the strategic partners. Not all of them share the same strategic thinking, let alone the same goal. None-the-less, Iran is now in a position to put a gun to the head of the Western World and get away with it. Or can’t she!?
When we look at the present conditions, we get the impression that Iran is gambling in a game, out of her league: First and foremost, Iran is investing enormous funds in her regional efforts. Russia is not a reliable paying customer, the Houthis are bottomless pit, Syria is willing to provide only the land for the militias Iran is sending there and the para-militaries in Iraq acting under Quds force are expensive. And then there is Hezbollah, costing Iran hundreds of millions of Dollars every year, sometimes even billions.
So, Iran needs funding. And who better to turn to than Qatar. The young Emir Al-Thani has all the money needed, very little obligations, is well protected through his foreign investments as well as a NATO aerial base. No-one will ever suspect Qatar, yet Iran has some common enemies, like Egypt, KSA and Turkey. It’s not a dependable arrangement, but it is a working one.
The Gaza war took both Iran and Qatar to the next level. Iran is holding a scimitar over the parties, threatening to turn what seems to be a local dispute into a regional crisis. Just to make sure that everyone understands that, Khamenei ordered the Houthis to terrorize the shipping in Bab-el-Mandeb and send them money.
For some reason, the USA saw through this scheme from the very beginning. Bringing in almost as many forces as in the second Gulf war was only the first step. To them, this is not a local dispute, nor is it an Iranian gamble on the leading role in Islam. This is a part of the struggle for economical world domination, and the USA will be second to none.
Iran has no real interest in Gaza, except for showing the Sunni world that the Shia is saving Palestine. With this in mind, Saudi-Arabia is now offering Iran another channel for funding, recently disguised as investment offers. MBS might expose the Iranian bluff, should he be refused. This would mean, that Iran will continue the gamble, going with Qatar, missing out on her last straw to cling to.
In this case, the US will have the needed proof that Iran is not interested in negotiations, that she is fully committed to the “axis-of-evil” and the only way to deal with Iran is a military one. Evidently, Iran is the weakest link in the axis and the natural choice to crack down on it.
This is where Qatar comes in. Will Al-Thani smell the coffee or not. For now, “all he did” was fund a terrorist organization that initiated a local war, that was abused by Iran, although he also funded Iran too, but not necessarily to that end. It is very unlikely, that Al-Thani will take his chances with China and Russia: for one, he didn’t join the BRICS initiative, he kept his connections secret and his ambitions in the background. He might weasel himself out, even while some US senators have pointed directly at the Emir of Qatar as a major instigator in the current situation, some even calling to move the aerial base to a more “decent” location.
The US administration wants to see a new era in the Middle-East, with reliable partners in the Emirates, KSA and Egypt, with a submissive Iran and less influence of China and Russia and neither Hamas, nor Qatar or even Iran, will stand in their way.
Qatar should immediately leave the axis of evil, extradite Hamas leadership and stop funding Iran and terrorist organizations. That’s the only way Al-Thani will survive.
Maybe holding a gun to the head of the free world was the wrong choice, and maybe that was just what the world needed – to wake up.
