A leading Iranian financial analyst assesses that Iran has played all her cards, and lost.
Bagheri may be too late going to Canossa, Khamenei too vain to take the last opportunity. Now, as Iran’s chief negotiator leaves for the next round of negotiations in Vienna “armed” with a letter of complete capitulation, Iran is already selling her assets cheap just to survive.
Stalling has not paid off, evidently. Already the oil sales have gone back. COVID-19 is a disaster, killing thousands, the regime has accelerated the use of NDFI money to fund the essential needs, mainly the IRGC. NDFI board members are alarmed, some conversing their frustration. Iranian currency has no value, useless as an income source. The people are out on the streets with no food, no water and no electricity.
Khamenei understands that as it stands, his regime won’t survive the winter, but he maybe too late. He gambled that the West will cave but instead the US stood its ground without any special moves. When he recalled Bagheri for consultations he already knew that time is of the essence. The Russians and Chinese have already taken a big bite of Iran’s future economy for scraps and the revolutions national financial reserve is already heavily bleeding just to allow the survival of the regime.
Now it’s up to the Americans, take a deep breath and wait out the Iranian bluff. Like lure fishing, it’s all in the wrist. In the end the hand extends and accepts the letter of capitulation. Time is on our side!