In February 2024, the United Kingdom, in cooperation with the United States, imposed sanctions on some units of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) due to their links with the Houthis, the Yemeni terrorist organization that is conducting destabilizing operations in the Red Sea. Imposing sanctions on the IRGC is the last step of a broader confrontation between the West and Iran. In this crisis, the IRGC has played a crucial role by supporting a regional network of militias that aims to counter the U.S. influence and destroy Israel. It also seeks to create a Middle Eastern pan–Shi’ite territorial state under the authority of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. IRGC’s shadowy and often underestimated activities make this militia particularly dangerous in the region’s geopolitics, due to how informal and difficult it is to track and predict. Western policymakers often underestimate the freedom of action they have compared to the regular Iranian army.
The IRGC is a powerful military organization and domestic cartel controlled by Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who appoints its commander–in–chief and other top leaders. Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini established this militia after the 1979 Islamic Revolution to protect the Islamic Republic from external and internal threats. It is divided into five branches: the more traditional ground, aerospace, and naval forces in addition to the Quds—which carry out unconventional warfare activities—and the Basij, composed of paramilitary volunteers. IRGC has increased its military and economic capabilities while pursuing an ideological agenda that is not strictly aligned with that of Iran’s regular army.
The Quds Force is responsible for the operations outside Iran’s borders. In the last few years, it has operated in Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon and experienced a significant transformation after General Qasem Soleimani’s killing in 2020. He was replaced by Esmail Qaani, who adopted a more under–the–radar approach based on intensifying ballistic missile supply to terrorist militias in the Middle East. These groups are very dangerous for regional and global stability due to their potential nuclear aspirations.
As a domestic cartel, the IRGC has widespread interests in sectors like arms transfer, money laundering, and oil smuggling. According to the IMF, the value of Iran’s underground economy is about $140 billion, of which a significant portion would be in the hands of the IRGC. The organization also receives one–third of the total Iranian military annual budget.
In 2021, the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change launched a program investigating the IRGC’s political and military doctrine. It has found that one of its first objectives to destabilize local governments with the support of cells, militias, and operatives. These operations mainly occur in failed or semi–failed countries because of absent state authority capable of countering them.
Iran has supported these military efforts with soft power institutions across the region. Cultural and humanitarian institutions that conduct recruitment and radicalization of the local population have spread in Yemen, Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan. In the latter, for example, the Imam Khomeini Relief Foundation is one of the most contested ones because of its alleged attempts to promote Shiism and incite anti–U.S. sentiment. Humanitarian activities also disguise the illegal trade of weapons. In 2023, Reuters reported that Iran had exploited earthquake relief flights sent to Syria to bring weapons into the country.
After the Gaza War outbreak, many policymakers in the region were afraid of an escalation between Israel and Hezbollah, the most powerful, IRGC–backed Shi’ite group. Tensions are increasing in the Israeli–Lebanese border, and a direct conflict seems likely. Foreign Policy reported that the IRGC seeks to make Israel “bleed slowly” over a prolonged, multifront war. An IRGC chief confirmed that “the Palestinian operation is the beginning of the Resistance Axis’ movement to destroy Israel.” This means that should Israel move quickly toward the Hamas eradication, all other Iran–backed militias will likely start a full–scale mobilization.
However, the threats that IRGC pose extend beyond Israel and undermine the entire region. The organization’s definitive goal is creating a pan–Shia state under the authority of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Despite having started a normalization process last year, the Sunni, Arab–majority Gulf countries are the key target of this expansion strategy that, if achieved, could dramatically change the entire Middle East and endanger international stability. Threatening trade in the Red Sea through the Houthis was only the latest evidence of this broader project.
Source » diplomaticourier