When it comes to Iran’s involvement in international terror, in killing hundreds and even thousands of individuals for political and religious gain, there is no real limit of guilt and blame. Iranian leadership has always seen terror activities as a legitimate cause of action, has instigated local disputes and even wars, using IRGC Quds force or MOIS agents, proxies and allies, whatever comes in handy. There has always been only one directive that should not be betrayed, which is admitting responsibility.
Once Iran officially crosses that line, the main question to be asked is not concerning the international legal and financial implications, but the internal reason for crossing that line. In general, there can only be two possibilities. The one, Iran’s willingness to join the liberal democratic Western world, admitting former faults in order to open a “card blanche” of international relations, sadly is revoked. Iran still Initiates, funds and advances wars and terror activities, including in the Ukraine, Armenia, Iraq, Yemen, Syria and Lebanon, just to name some.
The second option is quite alarming, but is an inevitable truth. When Iranian officials admit to terror attacks, especially as Issa Tabatabai, the representative of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in Lebanon at the time did, concerning the 1983 attacks against US installations in Lebanon, claiming hundreds of deaths, including 220 marines, one has to wonder. Why take the blame? Why cross that unwritten line of responsibility? Who has something to gain? The answer is quite clear: Khamenei is looking for a scape goat for whatever is wrong with Iran, why the people hate him, why the economy is down, why all the money that comes in, never reaches the needy and suffering. Pointing the finger at Khomeini at that time is pointing the finger at the IRGC of today. Has the end-game started?
Although the phrase end-game shows a somewhat playful notion, common sense offers less optimistic scenarios: Khamenei wants his son to inherit his position as the supreme religious leader, while the IRGC wants a military regime with alleged religious façade, when the leader is a puppet. That is why Khamenei goes all out against the IRGC, depriving them of funding (which they take care of on their own now) and blaming them for past ventures, making them responsible for the “world hating Iran”. He is willing to pay the price, knowing that the IRGC campaign against him has had more effect than expected, people shouting in the streets “marg bar diktator”, down with the dictator. Maybe Khamenei even aims at the possibility of a more liberal Iran, in which the supreme leader has more of a representative position, anything to save his son’s future.
In earlier reports we have shown this possibility as one to be considered (Iran’s second revolution) , once the supreme leader believes that the end of the Islamic revolution is nearing, when blaming others is the last instrument of self-preservation – and there is a lot of blame to go around.